Research Project
Full description Regional climate predictions (outputs) are converted to valley scale flood predictions for the Gwydir River. In doing so, a modelling framework has been iteratively developed and tested for future wide scale application. The model framework uses NSW and ACT Regional Climate Modelling version 1.5 (NARCliM 1.5) climate projections combined with ROR-style hydrology models and the LISFLOOD hydraulics model. Advanced informatics combined with high-performance computing resources allowed successful processing of 18 regional climate scenarios, of which six are historical periods, used in this framework with measurements to constrain model framework components. The framework conforms with the following principles: i) use NARCliM 1.5 outputs directly to force components of the framework; ii) maximise benefit from inundation estimates by simulating the entire NARCliM 1.5 predictions; iii) use open datasets, methods/models and mostly automatic approaches; iv) design the framework for implementation on high-performance computing resources; and v) the historical period, constrained by measurements, determines parameter values applied to the forecast period. The framework was implemented in MATLAB, with components written in FORTRAN (parallel post-processing) and C++ (LISFLOOD). To ensure maximum benefit from this project, all files have been included in an electronic appendix.