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A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change

Australian Institute of Marine Science
Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS)
Viewed: [[ro.stat.viewed]] Cited: [[ro.stat.cited]] Accessed: [[ro.stat.accessed]]
ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2FANDS&rft_id=https://apps.aims.gov.au/metadata/view/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11&rft.title=A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change&rft.identifier=https://apps.aims.gov.au/metadata/view/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11&rft.publisher=Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS)&rft.description=Data from the manuscript A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change.The resilience of the 2300 km-long Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change is often attributed to its perceived high level of connectivity. Using empirical current data and 3D hydrodynamic models, we demonstrate the existence of a hitherto under-appreciated constriction of the connectivity in the GBR, due to the geomorphology of coast and reefs, regional wind patterns, and intrusions of Coral Sea waters onto the shelf. Both data and models showed predominantly northward transport of coral larvae past the constriction during southerly winds, but a small level of southward transport during northerly winds. Our results show that this small constriction slows the southward spread of heat-adapted corals at ecologically relevant rates. As temperature zones are shifting rapidly southward due to climate change, opportunities and risks of actively assisting the poleward migration of corals in ecologically relevant numbers should be investigated in the quest to accelerate climate adaptation.Maintenance and Update Frequency: notPlannedStatement: The measured water velocity data were derived from an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP, Nortek Signature 1000; https://www.nortekgroup.com/products/signature-1000) deployed on the western slope of South Warden Reef in the narrowest section of the passage (latitude -14.27031¿S, longitude 144.6767¿E) at a mean measured depth of 23.1m from 19 March 2024 to 11 March 2025. The ADCP speed and direction data were layer-averaged after removing quality-control-flagged data. Data on measured wind speed and direction were obtained from the weather stations maintained by the Australian Institute of Marine Science at Agincourt Reef (-16.033¿S, 145.817¿E) and Lizard Island (-14.6683¿S, 145.4467¿E).&rft.creator=Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) &rft.date=2026&rft.coverage=westlimit=144.675350189209; southlimit=-14.263551241527797; eastlimit=144.675350189209; northlimit=-14.263551241527797&rft.coverage=westlimit=144.675350189209; southlimit=-14.263551241527797; eastlimit=144.675350189209; northlimit=-14.263551241527797&rft_rights=Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Australia License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/au/&rft_rights=Use Limitation: All AIMS data, products and services are provided as is and AIMS does not warrant their fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. While AIMS has made every reasonable effort to ensure high quality of the data, products and services, to the extent permitted by law the data, products and services are provided without any warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied, including without limitation any implied warranties of title, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. AIMS make no representation or warranty that the data, products and services are accurate, complete, reliable or current. To the extent permitted by law, AIMS exclude all liability to any person arising directly or indirectly from the use of the data, products and services.&rft_rights=Attribution: Format for citation of metadata sourced from Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in a list of reference is as follows: Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS). (2026). A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change. https://apps.aims.gov.au/metadata/view/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11, accessed[date-of-access].&rft_subject=oceans&rft.type=dataset&rft.language=English Access the data
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Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 3.0 Australia License
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/au/

Use Limitation: All AIMS data, products and services are provided "as is" and AIMS does not warrant their fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. While AIMS has made every reasonable effort to ensure high quality of the data, products and services, to the extent permitted by law the data, products and services are provided without any warranties of any kind, either expressed or implied, including without limitation any implied warranties of title, merchantability, and fitness for a particular purpose or non-infringement. AIMS make no representation or warranty that the data, products and services are accurate, complete, reliable or current. To the extent permitted by law, AIMS exclude all liability to any person arising directly or indirectly from the use of the data, products and services.

Attribution: Format for citation of metadata sourced from Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS) in a list of reference is as follows: "Australian Institute of Marine Science (AIMS). (2026). A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change. https://apps.aims.gov.au/metadata/view/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11, accessed[date-of-access]".

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Data from the manuscript "A connectivity bottleneck between the Far Northern and Northern Great Barrier Reef, with potential implications for the poleward migration of corals in response to climate change."


The resilience of the 2300 km-long Great Barrier Reef (GBR) to climate change is often attributed to its perceived high level of connectivity. Using empirical current data and 3D hydrodynamic models, we demonstrate the existence of a hitherto under-appreciated constriction of the connectivity in the GBR, due to the geomorphology of coast and reefs, regional wind patterns, and intrusions of Coral Sea waters onto the shelf. Both data and models showed predominantly northward transport of coral larvae past the constriction during southerly winds, but a small level of southward transport during northerly winds. Our results show that this small constriction slows the southward spread of heat-adapted corals at ecologically relevant rates. As temperature zones are shifting rapidly southward due to climate change, opportunities and risks of actively assisting the poleward migration of corals in ecologically relevant numbers should be investigated in the quest to accelerate climate adaptation.

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Maintenance and Update Frequency: notPlanned
Statement: The measured water velocity data were derived from an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP, Nortek Signature 1000; https://www.nortekgroup.com/products/signature-1000) deployed on the western slope of South Warden Reef in the narrowest section of the passage (latitude -14.27031¿S, longitude 144.6767¿E) at a mean measured depth of 23.1m from 19 March 2024 to 11 March 2025. The ADCP speed and direction data were layer-averaged after removing quality-control-flagged data. Data on measured wind speed and direction were obtained from the weather stations maintained by the Australian Institute of Marine Science at Agincourt Reef (-16.033¿S, 145.817¿E) and Lizard Island (-14.6683¿S, 145.4467¿E).

Modified: 28 08 2026

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144.67535,-14.26355

144.67535018921,-14.263551241528

text: westlimit=144.675350189209; southlimit=-14.263551241527797; eastlimit=144.675350189209; northlimit=-14.263551241527797

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Other Information
Wind data from the AIMS Lizard Island Weather Station for the observation period

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Lizard Island wind.csv

ADCP and wind data combined, daily means

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/ADCP_and_Wind_combined-daily_means.csv

ADCP average u v components converted to speed direction

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/ADCP average u v components converted to speed direction.csv

Wind data from the AIMS Agincourt Weather Station for the observation period

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Agincourt Reef wind kf.csv

South Warden Reef - ADCP data raw, netcdf

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/South Warden ADCP-nc-Data.zip

SLIM model of larval transport off the GBR through the Coral Sea - December 2024, by Miguel De Le Court

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Larval_transport SLIM_December_Open.mp4

SLIM model of larval transport on the GBR continental shelf - December 2024, by Miguel De Le Court

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Larval_transport SLIM November_Shelf.mp4

Comparison SLIM model OSCAR, by Miguel De Le Court

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/FigS5_SLIM_OSCAR.mp4

SLIM model of larval transport off the GBR through the Coral Sea - November 2024

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Larval_transport SLIM_December_Open.mp4

SLIM model of larval transport on the GBR continental shelf - November 2024, by Miguel De Le Court

url : https://api.aims.gov.au/data-v2.0/bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11/files/Larval_transport SLIM_December_Shelf.mp4

global : fe9659f1-12d6-4acf-ab89-67acdd37efe5

Identifiers
  • global : bdf5a24b-4021-4325-bf99-75eb5c053a11
ACN 633 798 857