Data

Species presence probability projections under climate change in Australia (2025,2050,2090) for Japanese Encephalitis Virus risk analysis

Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Sexton, Justin ; Golchin, Maryam ; Hickson, Roslyn
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ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2FANDS&rft_id=info:doi10.25919/feye-9073&rft.title=Species presence probability projections under climate change in Australia (2025,2050,2090) for Japanese Encephalitis Virus risk analysis&rft.identifier=https://doi.org/10.25919/feye-9073&rft.publisher=Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation&rft.description=These data were produced to investigate how the risk of JEV across Australia may change under future climate change projections. Data includes projections of JEV presence probabilities based on the presence probability of three Culex species and 12 waterbird species or feral pigs. on an approx. 5km*5km grid for mainland Australia. Projections were made for three time periods (2025, 2050 and 2090), two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and eight climate change models using data from the Climate Change in Australia project. Data are provided as raster files in the geoTIFF format. Analysis were produced as part of the Australian Climate Services; Air Quality and Communicable Diseases technical report.The collection is divided into three folders:JEV individual changes: Contains geoTiffs for the change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025 for each of 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS_____2025_diff.tiffJEV summarized changes: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025, across the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS____2025_proj_diff_extra_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.JEV summarized changes: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025, across the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS____2025_proj_diff_extra_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.JEV summarized projections: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) projections of JEV relative presence probability for each period (2025,2050,2090), for each of the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS___proj_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.Lineage: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling was used to develop relative presence probability models for sixteen species (3 Culex species, 12 water bird species and feral pigs) and used to produce a JEV relative risk measure following Furlong et al. (2022). Presence/absence data for each species were sourced from the Atlas of Living Australia and VectorMap projects. Historic climate variables were used to develop the models. Once built, models were used to project changes in presence probabilities for future periods based on projections from climate change models sourced from the Climate Change in Australia project (based on CMIP5). Projected changes were then interpreted.&rft.creator=Sexton, Justin &rft.creator=Golchin, Maryam &rft.creator=Hickson, Roslyn &rft.date=2025&rft.edition=v3&rft.coverage=westlimit=112.0; southlimit=-43.8; eastlimit=156.3; northlimit=-10.0; projection=WGS84&rft_rights=Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial 4.0 Licence https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/&rft_rights=Access to the data is restricted&rft_rights=All Rights (including copyright) CSIRO 2025.&rft_subject=Climate Change&rft_subject=species distribution modelling&rft_subject=japanese encephalitis virus&rft_subject=risk&rft_subject=Climate change impacts and adaptation not elsewhere classified&rft_subject=Climate change impacts and adaptation&rft_subject=ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES&rft_subject=Epidemiological modelling&rft_subject=Epidemiology&rft_subject=HEALTH SCIENCES&rft_subject=Applied statistics&rft_subject=Statistics&rft_subject=MATHEMATICAL SCIENCES&rft.type=dataset&rft.language=English Access the data
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All Rights (including copyright) CSIRO 2025.

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These data were produced to investigate how the risk of JEV across Australia may change under future climate change projections. Data includes projections of JEV presence probabilities based on the presence probability of three Culex species and
12 waterbird species or feral pigs. on an approx. 5km*5km grid for mainland Australia. Projections were made for three time periods (2025, 2050 and 2090), two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) and eight climate change models using data from the Climate Change in Australia project. Data are provided as raster files in the geoTIFF format. Analysis were produced as part of the Australian Climate Services; Air Quality and Communicable Diseases technical report.

The collection is divided into three folders:
JEV individual changes: Contains geoTiffs for the change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025 for each of 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS_____2025_diff.tiff
JEV summarized changes: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025, across the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS____2025_proj_diff_extra_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.
JEV summarized changes: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) change in JEV relative presence probability between 2050 and 2025 or 2090 and 2025, across the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS____2025_proj_diff_extra_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.
JEV summarized projections: Contains geoTiffs for the median, lower (10th percentile) and upper (90th percentile) projections of JEV relative presence probability for each period (2025,2050,2090), for each of the 8 climate models under two RCPs. Files are name as jev_risk_ACS___proj_.tif, where statistic is one of upper, med and lower.
Lineage: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling was used to develop relative presence probability models for sixteen species (3 Culex species, 12 water bird species and feral pigs) and used to produce a JEV relative risk measure following Furlong et al. (2022). Presence/absence data for each species were sourced from the Atlas of Living Australia and VectorMap projects. Historic climate variables were used to develop the models. Once built, models were used to project changes in presence probabilities for future periods based on projections from climate change models sourced from the Climate Change in Australia project (based on CMIP5). Projected changes were then interpreted.

Available: 2025-04-01

Data time period: 2025-01-01 to 2090-12-31

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Subjects
Applied Statistics | Climate Change | Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation | Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Not Elsewhere Classified | Environmental Sciences | Epidemiological Modelling | Epidemiology | Health Sciences | Mathematical Sciences | Statistics | japanese encephalitis virus | risk | species distribution modelling |

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Identifiers
ACN 633 798 857