Predicted future surface water extent across river networks in South-east Queensland and systematic prioritisation to sustain freshwater biodiversity

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To inform the spatial distribution of dry-season aquatic refuges in rivers, we developed statistical models to predict surface water extent across river networks in South-east Queensland for both a historical period (1999-2018) and four future periods (2020-2039, 2040-2059, 2060-2079, and 2080-2099) under three climate change projections. The statistical models used inputs from the hydro-climatic simulations from the National Hydrological Projections and several environmental attributes from the Geofabric data set (both developed by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM)). We further applied a systematic planning algorithm to prioritise stream segments for efficient management. The prioritisation was based on hydrological factors (e.g., the predicted surface water extent) and simulated spatial distribution of 25 freshwater species sourced from Rose et al. (2016). Rose, P.M., Kennard, M.J., Moffatt, D.B., Sheldon, F., Butler, G.L., 2016. Testing Three Species Distribution Modelling Strategies to Define Fish Assemblage Reference Conditions for Stream Bioassessment and Related Applications. PLoS One, 11(1): e0146728. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0146728