Modelling spatial distribution and association between spatial factors and criminal issues in Saudi Arabia

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This research study analysed the crime rate spatially and it examined the relationship between crime and spatial factors in Saudi Arabia. It reviewed the related literature that has utilised crime mapping techniques, such as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing (RS); these techniques are a basic part of effectively helping security and authority agencies by providing them with a clear perception of crime patterns and a surveillance direction to track and tackle crime. This study analysed the spatial relationships between crime and place, immigration, changes in urban areas, weather and transportation networks. The research study was divided into six parts to investigate the correlation between crime and these factors. The first part of the research study examined the relationship between crime and place across the 13 provinces of Saudi Arabia using GIS techniques based on population density in order to identify and visualise the spatial distributions of national and regional crime rates for drug crimes, thefts, murders, assaults, and alcohol-related and ‘outrageous crimes’ (offences against Islam) over a 10-year period from 2003 to 2012. Social disorganisation theory was employed to guide the study and explain the diversity in crime patterns across the country. The highest rates of overall crimes were identified in the Northern Borders Province and Jizan, which are located in the northern and southern regions of the country, respectively; the eastern area of the country was found to have the lowest crime rate. Most drug offences occurred in the Northern Borders Province and Jizan; high rates of theft were recorded in the Northern Borders Province, Jouf Province and Makkah Province, while the highest rates of homicide occurred in Asir Province. The second part of the research study aimed to determine the trends of overall crime in relation to six crime categories: drug-related activity, theft, murder, assault, alcohol-related crimes and outrageous or sex-related crimes, in Saudi Arabia’s 13 provinces over a 10-year period from 2003 to 2012. The study analysed the spatial and temporal changes of criminal cases. Spatial changes were used to determine the differences over the time period of 2003–2012 to show the provincial rates of change for each crime category. Temporal changes were used to compute the trends of the overall crime rate and crimes in the six categories per 1,000 people per year. The results showed that the overall crime rate increased steadily until 2008; thereafter it decreased in all areas except for the Northern Borders Province and Jizan, which recorded the highest crime rates throughout the study period. We have explained that decrease in terms of changes in wages, support for the unemployed and service improvements, which were factors that previous studies also emphasised as being the primary cause for the decrease. This study includes a detailed discussion to contribute to the understanding of the changes in the crime rates in these categories throughout this period in the 13 provinces of Saudi Arabia. The third part of the research study aimed to explain the effects of immigration on the overall crime rate in the six most significant categories of crime in Saudi Arabia, which are drug-related activity, theft, murder, assault, alcohol-related crimes and outrageous crimes, during a 10-year period from 2003 to 2012, in all 13 administrative provinces. It also sought to identify the provinces most affected by the criminal activities of immigrants during this period. No positive association between immigrants and criminal cases was found. It was clearly visible that the highest rate of overall criminal activities was in the south, north and Makkah areas, where there is a high probability of illegal immigrants. This finding supports the basic criminological theory that areas with high levels of immigrants also experience high rates of crime. The study’s results provide recommendations to the Saudi government, policy-makers, decision-makers and immigration authorities, which could assist in reducing crimes perpetrated by immigrants. In the fourth part of the research study, urban areas were examined in relation to crime rates. Urban area expansion is one of the most critical types of worldwide change, and most urban areas are experiencing increased population growth and infrastructure development. Urban change leads to many changes in the daily activities of people living within an affected area. Many studies have suggested that urbanisation and crime are related. However, those studies focused on land uses, types of land use and urban forms, such as the physical features of neighbourhoods, roads, shopping centres and bus stations. It is very important for criminologists and urban planning decision-makers to understand the correlation between urban area expansion and crime. In this research, satellite images were used to measure urban expansion over a 10-year period; the study tested the correlations between these expansions and the number of criminal activities within these specific areas. The results show that there is a measurable relationship between urban expansion and criminal activities. The findings support the crime opportunity theory as one possibility, which suggests that population density and crime are conceptually related. Moreover, the results show that the correlations are stronger in areas that have undergone greater urban growth. This study did not evaluate many other factors that might affect the crime rate, such as information on the spatial details of the population, city planning, economic considerations, the distance from the city centre, the quality of neighbourhoods, and the number of police officers. However, this research will be of particular interest to those who aim to use remote sensing to study crime patterns. The fifth part of the research study investigated the impacts of weather on crime rates in two different cities: Riyadh and Makkah. While a number of studies have examined climate influences on crime and human behaviour by investigating the correlation between climate and weather elements, such as temperature, humidity and precipitation, and crime rates, few studies have focused on haze as a weather element and its correlation with crime. This research examined haze as a weather variable to investigate its effects on criminal activity and compare its effects with those of temperature and humidity. Monthly crime data and monthly weather records were used to build a regression model to predict crime cases based on three weather factors using temperature, humidity and haze values. This model was applied to two provinces in Saudi Arabia with different types of climates: Riyadh and Makkah. Riyadh Province is a desert area in which haze occurs approximately 17 days per month on average. Makkah Province is a coastal area where it is hazy an average of 4 days per month. A measurable relationship was found between each of these three variables and criminal activity. However, haze had a greater effect on theft, drug-related crimes and assault in Riyadh Province than temperature and humidity. Temperature and humidity were the efficacious variables in Makkah Province, while haze had no significant influence in that region. Finally, the sixth part of the research study examined the influence of the quality and extent of road networks on crime rates in both urban and rural areas in Jizan Province, Saudi Arabia. We performed both Ordinary Least Squares regression (OLS) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) where crime rate was the dependent variable and paved (sealed) roads, non-paved (unsealed/gravel) roads and population density were the explanatory variables. Population density was a control variable. The findings reveal that, across all 14 districts in that province, the districts with better quality paved road networks had lower rates of crime than the districts with unpaved roads. Furthermore, the more extensive the road networks, the lower the crime rate whether or not the roads were paved. These findings concur with those reported in studies conducted in other countries, which revealed that rural areas are not always the safe, crime-free places they are often believed to be. This research contributes knowledge about the geographical information of criminal movement, and it offers some conceivable reasons for crime rates and patterns in relation to the spatial factors and the sociocultural perspectives of Saudi Arabian life. More geographical research is still needed in terms of criminology, which will provide a better understanding of crime patterns, particularly in Saudi Arabia, and across the globe, where the spatial distribution of criminal cases is an essential base in crime research. Furthermore, additional studies are needed to investigate the complex interventions of the effect of different spatial variables on crime and the uncertainties correlation with the impact of environmental factors. This can help predict the impact of socioeconomic and environmental factors. The greater part of such an investigation will enhance the understanding of crime patterns, which is imperative for advancing a framework that can be used to address crime reduction and crime prevention.