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Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market

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Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (Owned by)
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ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info%3Aofi%2Ffmt%3Akev%3Amtx%3Adc&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2FANDS&rft_id=http://data.gov.au/data/dataset/27eac432-36f1-4f64-b8ba-9a808ffea0cd&rft.title=Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market&rft.identifier=pb_fsswmd9aaw20180808&rft.publisher=data.gov.au&rft.description=Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - link to the ABARES website - KeyDocument 01 \r\n In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules.Interactive data dashboard - Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - KeyDocument 02 \r\n Results from the ABARES Water Trade Model of the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Results are presented for baseline and future scenarios. Designed to examine changes in water demand and supply and implications for the water market.Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - Report - KeyDocument 03 \r\n In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules. \r\nAuthoritative descriptive metadata for: Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - Metadata in ISO 19139 format\r\nSince the peak of the Millennium drought, the southern Murray-Darling Basin (sMDB) has seen large increases in nut and cotton plantings, decreases in water supply due to environmental water recovery and tighter limits on water trade between regions. These changes have raised concerns about how the water market might cope under drought conditions. \r\n\r\n In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules. These scenarios provide an indication of future water prices and trade patterns across the sMDB under a repeat of historical climate conditions (for the period 2002-03 to 2016-17). \r\n\r\nKey Issues \r\n\r\n• Modelling results suggest that under a repeat of historical conditions allocation water prices in the sMDB would rise no higher than the peaks observed during the previous drought. \r\n• Whilst demand for water has increased for cotton and almonds, this has been more than offset by reductions in demand in other industries particularly, grazing, dairy and rice. \r\n• Improvements in carryover rules will help to limit price rises under a repeat of the drought, with much larger volumes of water being stored between years. \r\n• Trade limits will likely be binding more often in the future, partly due to the changes in water demand. \r\n• While water price peaks are simulated to be no higher under a repeat of extreme drought conditions, they are higher on average, due in part to environmental water recovery. The modelling suggests a change in the distribution of prices, with fewer years of low prices.\r\n&rft.creator=Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences&rft.date=2023&rft.coverage=Australia&rft.coverage=151.122622,-25.371968&rft_rights=Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0&rft_subject=AGRICULTURE&rft_subject=AGRICULTURE Irrigation&rft_subject=Farming&rft_subject=HUMAN ENVIRONMENT&rft_subject=HUMAN ENVIRONMENT Economics&rft_subject=INDUSTRY Primary&rft_subject=Murray-Darling Basin&rft_subject=WATER&rft_subject=WATER Rivers&rft_subject=WATER Supply&rft_subject=allocation price&rft_subject=entitlement price&rft_subject=environment&rft_subject=environmental water&rft_subject=groundwater&rft_subject=inter-regional trade&rft_subject=irrigation&rft_subject=irrigation activity&rft_subject=irrigation land use&rft_subject=natural resource management&rft_subject=southern Murray-Darling Basin&rft_subject=surface water&rft_subject=water&rft_subject=water access entitlement&rft_subject=water allocation&rft_subject=water entitlement&rft_subject=water market prices&rft_subject=water market scenarios&rft_subject=water markets&rft_subject=water modelling&rft_subject=water resources&rft_subject=water trade&rft_subject=water trade model&rft.type=dataset&rft.language=English Access the data
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Brief description

Since the peak of the Millennium drought, the southern Murray-Darling Basin (sMDB) has seen large increases in nut and cotton plantings, decreases in water supply due to environmental water recovery and tighter limits on water trade between regions. These changes have raised concerns about how the water market might cope under drought conditions.

In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules. These scenarios provide an indication of future water prices and trade patterns across the sMDB under a repeat of historical climate conditions (for the period 2002-03 to 2016-17).

Key Issues

• Modelling results suggest that under a repeat of historical conditions allocation water prices in the sMDB would rise no higher than the peaks observed during the previous drought.
• Whilst demand for water has increased for cotton and almonds, this has been more than offset by reductions in demand in other industries particularly, grazing, dairy and rice.
• Improvements in carryover rules will help to limit price rises under a repeat of the drought, with much larger volumes of water being stored between years.
• Trade limits will likely be binding more often in the future, partly due to the changes in water demand.
• While water price peaks are simulated to be no higher under a repeat of extreme drought conditions, they are higher on average, due in part to environmental water recovery. The modelling suggests a change in the distribution of prices, with fewer years of low prices.

Full description

Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - link to the ABARES website - KeyDocument 01 \r\n In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules.
Interactive data dashboard - Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - KeyDocument 02 \r\n Results from the ABARES Water Trade Model of the southern Murray-Darling Basin. Results are presented for baseline and future scenarios. Designed to examine changes in water demand and supply and implications for the water market.
Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - Report - KeyDocument 03 \r\n In this study, ABARES applies an economic model of the sMDB to simulate what would happen to the water market under a repeat of the Millennium drought, with current water demand, environmental water recovery, trade limits and carryover rules. \r\n
Authoritative descriptive metadata for: Future scenarios for the southern Murray-Darling Basin water market - Metadata in ISO 19139 format\r\n

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151.12262,-25.37197

151.122622,-25.371968

text: Australia

Subjects
AGRICULTURE | AGRICULTURE Irrigation | Farming | HUMAN ENVIRONMENT | HUMAN ENVIRONMENT Economics | INDUSTRY Primary | Murray-Darling Basin | WATER | WATER Rivers | WATER Supply | allocation price | entitlement price | environment | environmental water | groundwater | inter-regional trade | irrigation | irrigation activity | irrigation land use | natural resource management | southern Murray-Darling Basin | surface water | water | water access entitlement | water allocation | water entitlement | water market prices | water market scenarios | water markets | water modelling | water resources | water trade | water trade model |

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