Data from: Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming

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This data package consists of 9 files:

(1) Larvae of Cyphastrea japonica swimming in the end of the experiment - "age" is the larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as "swim"/"larvae".

(2) Larvae of Favites stylifera swimming in the end of the experiment - "age" is the larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as "swim"/"larvae".

(3) Larvae of Acropora millepora swimming in the end of the experiment - "age" is the larval age (h) at the end of experiment, "temp" is the temperature larvae were raised at; "rep" is the replicate number; "swim" is the number of larvae swimming in the end of the experiment; "larvae" is the number of larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propswim" is the proportion of larvae swimming at the end of the experiment, calculated as "swim"/"larvae".

(4) Metamorphosis of Cyphastrea japonica at different temperatures - "age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"

(5) Metamorphosis of Favites stylifera at different temperatures - "age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"

(6) Metamorphosis of Acropora millepora at different temperatures - "age" is larval age (h); "temp" is temperature; "rep" is the replicate number; "meta" is the number of larvae that metamorphosed that day; "larvae" is the number of larvae used to start the experiment; "cum" is the cumulative number of larvae that have metamorphosed until that day; "propmeta" is the proportion of larvae that have metamorphosed that day, calculated as "meta"/"larvae"; "propcum" is the cumulative proportion of larvae that have metamorphoses, calculated as "cum"/"larvae"

(7) Larval survival of Cyphastrea japonica at different temperatures - "temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"

(8) Larval survival of Favites stylifera at different temperatures - "temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"

(9) Larval survival of Acropora millepora at different temperatures - "temp" is the temperature the larvae were raised in; "age" is the larval age (h), "surv" is the number of larvae alive (swimming as no settlement cue was provided), "larvae" is the number of embryo/larvae in the beginning of the experiment; "propsurv" is the proportion of larvae alive, calculated as "surv"/"larvae"

(10) R code to produce Figure 1: Proportion of surviving larvae in absence of settlement cues, and proportion of larvae settled and swimming at the end of the experiment in presence of settlement cues for Cyphastrea japonica, Favites stylifera and Acropora millepora at 27, 29 and 31°C  - R code to produce Figure 1 where observations and model predictions are compared. This code includes the estimate of survival and competence parameters for all species

(11) R code to produce Figure 2: Relative increase in the proportion of larvae that attain competence while retained on the natal reef over a realistic range of mean residence times around a reef with a 2 and 4°C increase - R code to produce Figure 2, including estimating of all parameters for all species, local retention and relative increase in local retention.

(12) R code to produce Figure 3: Schematic of the proportion of potential settlers for reefs with short, intermediate and long mean residence times - Proportion of potential settlers (live larvae not yet flushed from the reef) for reefs with short (1 day, light blue), intermediate (2.5 days, dark blue) and long (10 days, green) mean residence times, using estimates for A. millepora (Table S2). In A&B, mortality rate is equal for all reefs (λ27), and the vertical distance between the dashed lines represents the increased proportion of potential settlers due to the reduction in the minimum time to competence from tc27 to tc31. In C&D, minimum competence time is fixed at tc27, and mortality rate is low on the top (λ27) and higher on the bottom (λ31) of each shaded band; thus, the vertical distance between the dashed lines shows the reduction in the proportion of potential settlers due to the increased mortality rate.

Abstract [Related Publication]: Climate change will alter many aspects of the ecology of organisms, including dispersal patterns and population connectivity. Understanding these changes is essential to predict future species distributions, estimate potential for adaptation, and design effective networks of protected areas. In marine environments, dispersal is often accomplished by larvae. At higher temperatures, larvae develop faster, but suffer higher mortality, making the effect of temperature on dispersal difficult to predict. Here, we experimentally calibrate the effect of temperature on larval survival and settlement in a dynamic model of coral dispersal. Our findings imply that most reefs globally will experience several-fold increases in local retention of larvae due to ocean warming. This increase will be particularly pronounced for reefs with mean water residence times comparable to the time required for species to become competent to settle. Higher local retention rates strengthen the link between abundance and recruitment at the reef scale, suggesting that populations will be more responsive to local conservation actions. Higher rates of local retention and mortality will weaken connectivity between populations, and thus potentially retard recovery following severe disturbances that substantially deplete local populations. Conversely, on isolated reefs that are dependent on replenishment from local broodstock, increases in local retention may hasten recovery.

Methods [Related Publication]: To predict how local retention of corals may be altered by ocean warming, we extended a model of coral larval retention around a reef that incorporates the dynamics of larval survival and acquisition of competence^11,14. Second, we experimentally calibrated the effect of temperature on the model parameters for three coral species, Cyphastrea japonica, Favites stylifera and Acropora millepora. Finally, we used the calibrated model to estimate the proportion of larvae successfully attaining competence to settle while retained in their natal reef (local retention) at different temperatures (see Supplementary Information for details).

Notes

This dataset is available from Dryad in Comma-separated values (.csv) and plain text (.txt) formats. Dryad data package: Figueiredo J, Baird AH, Harii S, Connolly SR (2014) Data from: Increased local retention of reef coral larvae as a result of ocean warming. Dryad Digital Repository. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.7vj03