Ecological Knowledge System: State and Transition Models

Brief description

Collection: This collection contains models and datasets describing the State and Transition Models (STMs) developed as part of the Ecological Knowledge System (EKS). The EKS is a partnership between CSIRO and the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water (DCCEEW) to establish a transparent and authoritative source of information, biodiversity assessment and forecast capability for the Nature Repair Market (the market). STMs are used in the EKS to synthesise knowledge about the dynamics, management, and restoration of ecosystems.

This collection comprises two types of information: (1) comprehensive summary reports for state and transition models (STM) developed by the Ecological Knowledge System, and (2) STM data in JSON and Excel format detailing the states, transitions, and disturbances across all models. The data is the same between the two formats, but they have different purposes. The JSON-formatted data is used to transfer information to the PLANR tool (https://planr.gov.au/). The Excel file contains the same data in an easy-to-read format. Supporting documentation includes a Data Dictionary which defines the different components of this collection and its characteristics.

This data collection is based on research created under the Project An Ecological Knowledge System for the Nature Repair Market scheme, which was funded by DCCEEW. The Commonwealth owns the intellectual property rights in any material developed while carrying out the Project. Copyright is retained by CSIRO (2025).
This collection will be periodically updated with new models as they are completed.
To cite individual models within this collection, please use the citation specified in the applicable model summary reports.

Background: STMs are conceptual tools that describe the state of a particular ecosystem (which may vary from reference to removed in terms of ecosystem integrity) and the drivers that cause transitions between states. STMs enable distinction among states that are similar in condition (in terms of departure from reference condition) but differ in ecosystem characteristics (such as species composition, structure, and function). STMs also estimate the expected outcomes of different management interventions over specific timeframes.

They are constructed using the following key components:
•\tReference states: The dynamic state of an ecosystem that has the highest ecosystem integrity (e.g. ecosystem condition score of 1.0).
•\tModified states: An ecosystem state that is not in reference condition due to disturbances external to the ecosystem (i.e. exogenous disturbances) such as land clearing or grazing. A modified ecosystem state is assigned an ecosystem condition score representing its integrity relative to the reference state.
•\tTransitions: The pathway through which an ecosystem may pass from one state to another. Transitions can be triggered by disturbances or management interventions external to the ecosystem.

Specific STMs may be directly referenced or included in part, or in whole, in a market method. STMs can be used to identify ecosystem state and condition, and the actions that are required to improve biodiversity by restoring ecosystem structure, function, and composition. They also provide numerical condition scores and can be used to predict the likely condition and ecosystem state of an activity area after restoration activities have been completed over specific timeframes. STMs may also be used indirectly by project proponents as a source of evidence to inform project planning, for example, to understand the drivers of transitions between different ecosystem states. STM information may also have other uses outside the Nature Repair Market.

Lineage: STMs for the Nature Repair Market were developed by CSIRO and DCCEEW, in collaboration with regional ecological experts. STMs can be produced at a range of scales, from paddock to regional to national, and they can be nested or linked across spatial scales allowing finer-scale processes to inform broader-scale models and vice versa. Two types of ecosystem models are produced by the EKS:
•\tRegional STMs, which are developed through expert elicitation of information about ecosystems in specific regions.
•\tNational ‘generic’ STMs, which are not specific to a region but are designed to be applied across similar ecosystem types with common descriptions of starting and target states, condition scores and transition times. These models can be informed by regional models.

It is intended that national and regionally specific STMs are progressively developed to increase coverage across Australia.
This collection currently includes the STM for forest and woodland ecosystems in intensive agricultural landscapes of temperate and subtropical regions of Australia which was used to inform the first Nature Repair Market method. Method specific information is not included in the STM report. STMs include all possible states and transitions, not only those that may be eligible or plausible for a specific nature repair method. Information about how this STM is used in the method is available on the Nature Repair Market webpage and in the NBAS Settings document. JSON and Excel datasets contain additional information detailing method alignment specific to the nature repair method. The national ‘generic’ forests and woodlands STM was informed by several regional STMs (see Related Links to access the regional STM pilot studies which informed the current generic model).

The compilation of STMs for use in the EKS occurs via a transparent and reproducible method for eliciting knowledge from a diverse group of experts in the natural resource management sector, such as on-ground practitioners and conservation managers, as well as ecologists. Specifically, experts describe ecosystem states that range from reference through to different stages of modification, as well as the management actions and restoration interventions (i.e. drivers) required to transition from a given starting state to another state. Experts provide information about how likely different transitions are, as well as environmental and other factors that affect transitions between states. Information is then synthesised into an STM framework.

More information about the EKS and STM methodology are available in the EKS Technical Report (see Related Links).