Decadal Forest Fire Danger Index (2006-2096)

Brief description

Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) is used to represent potential fire weather severe in the evaluation of potential bushfire hazard. Gridded discrete points of FFDI were calculated, adjusted to climate change to 2050 and interpolated for use in this process.

Statistical hazard modelling was used in the generation of the Forest Fire Danger Index. The data used is the ERA-Interim (https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/era-interim). The ERA-Interim is 0.75° × 0.75° gridded data from 1979 to 2011 of 3-hourly temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and drought factor. Since they were recorded regularly at 3-hourly intervals, the annual maxima of FFDIs can be readily calculated. For FFDI hazard analysis the under current climate, the annual maxima were subtracted by the corresponding values read from the trend line, followed by adding the trend line value in 1995. That is, the hazard estimated for 1995 is regarded as the FFDI hazard under the current climate. The FFDI maps for Australia based on the FFDI under the historical climate (base) as well as the B1, A1B, and A1FI climate change scenarios.
Lineage: Application of McArthur's Forest Fire Danger Index to the ERA-Interim three hourly climate data given one of four climate change scenarios.