Full description
Globally, terrestrially-breeding marine predators have experienced shifts in species distribution, prey availability, breeding phenology, and population dynamics due to climate change. These central-place foragers are restricted within proximity of their breeding colonies during the breeding season, making them highly susceptible to any changes in both marine and terrestrial environments. While ecologists have developed risk assessments to assess likely climate risk in various contexts, these often overlook critical breeding biology data.To address this knowledge gap, we developed a trait-based risk assessment framework, focusing on the breeding season and applying it to marine predators breeding in parts of Australian territory and Antarctica. Our objectives were to quantify climate change risk, identify specific threats, and establish an adaptable framework. The assessment considered 25 criteria related to three risk components: vulnerability, exposure, and hazard, while accounting for uncertainty. We employed a scoring system that integrated a systematic literature review and expert elicitation for the hazard criteria. Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify key factors contributing to overall risk.
Our results identified shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta), southern rockhopper penguins (Eudyptes chrysocome), Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus), and Australian sea lions (Neophoca cinerea) with high climate urgency. Species breeding in lower latitudes as well as certain eared seal, albatross, and penguin species were particularly at risk. Hazard and exposure explained the most variation in relative risk, outweighing vulnerability. Key climate hazards affecting most species include extreme weather events, changes in habitat suitability, and prey availability.
We emphasise the need for further research, focusing on at-risk species, and filling knowledge gaps (less-studied hazard criteria, and/or species) to provide a more accurate and robust climate change risk assessment. Our findings offer valuable insights for conservation efforts, given monitoring and implementing climate adaptation strategies for land-dependent marine predators is more feasible during their breeding season.
Lineage
Maintenance and Update Frequency: notPlanned
Statement: The study encompassed a total of 56 species of seabirds and pinnipeds, spanning across 10 taxonomic families, breeding in diverse habitats across the Indo-Pacific region of the Southern Hemisphere. These habitats include temperate islands in Bass Strait and Southeast Australia, Subantarctic Macquarie Island, and the Antarctic continent. The selection of this study area was deliberate, aiming to include a variety of habitats that host a range of marine predator taxa while maintaining a manageable taxa list for in-depth analysis. In our assessment, we employed the latest risk assessment framework outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). This contemporary framework acknowledges that risks associated with climate change arise from the interaction between climatic hazards and the exposure and vulnerability of the targeted taxa or ecosystem. To evaluate the climate change risk, we established 15 vulnerability criteria, four exposure criteria and six hazard criteria through a comprehensive review of the literature. Information on vulnerability and exposure criteria was sourced from online databases (the IUCN red list, Birds of the World, AnAge, Avibase, Encyclopedia of Life and Animal Diversity Web), while hazard data was gathered through a combination of a systematic literature review and expert elicitation. To quantify the significance of each risk component in this study, a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was conducted using the R package 'tgp'.
Issued: 08 07 2024
Data time period: 2022-06-06 to 2023-10-31
text: westlimit=135.00; southlimit=-70.00; eastlimit=160.00; northlimit=-35.00
text: westlimit=-35.15625; southlimit=-86.312636; eastlimit=-42.1875; northlimit=-60.586967
Subjects
AGRICULTURE |
ANIMAL ECOLOGY AND BEHAVIOR |
ANIMAL SCIENCE |
ATMOSPHERIC/OCEAN INDICATORS |
Antarctica |
Biological Sciences |
CLIMATE INDICATORS |
Climate Change Risk Assessment |
Continents | Continents | Antarctica |
EARTH SCIENCE |
EARTH SCIENCE SERVICES |
EARTH SCIENCE | BIOSPHERE | ECOSYSTEMS | MARINE ECOSYSTEMS |
Ecological Applications |
Ecology |
ENVIRONMENTAL ADVISORIES |
Environmental Sciences |
ENVIRONMENTAL VULNERABILITY INDEX (EVI) |
EXTREME WEATHER |
Ecological Impacts of Climate Change |
Ecosystem Function |
MARINE ADVISORIES |
MARINE BIOLOGY |
Macquarie Island |
Marine Features (Australia) | Marine Features (Australia) | Bass Strait, TAS/VIC |
Marine Mammals |
Marine and Estuarine Ecology (Incl. Marine Ichthyology) |
Offshore Islands (Australia) | Offshore Islands (Australia) | Macquarie Island |
Pinnipeds |
Seabirds |
States, Territories (Australia) | States, Territories (Australia) | Tasmania |
Subantarctic Region |
Tasmania |
Trait-based Risk Assessment |
biota |
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Other Information
(DATA ACCESS - Climate change risk assessment for marine predators [.zip])
Identifiers
- global : 45e19048-1195-475c-a4f0-170adbec5c4d
