Circumpolar Projections of Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) growth potential

Brief description

These data represent the results of the first study to use Earth System Model (ESM) outputs of SST and chlorophyll-a to simulate circumpolar krill growth potential for the recent past (1960-1989) and future climate change scenarios (2070-2099). Growth potential is obtained using an empirically-derived krill growth model (Atkinson et al. 2006, Limnol. Oceanogr.), where growth is modeled as a function of SST and chlorophyll-a. It serves as an approximation of habitat quality, as areas that support high growth rates are assumed to be good habitat (see Murphy et al., 2017, Sci Rep).

To increase confidence in the future projections, ESMs were selected and weighted for each season based on their skill at reproducing observation-based krill growth potential for the recent past. First, eleven ESMs which provided SST and chlorophyll-a outputs were obtained from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 5 archive. These included: CanESM2, CMCC-CESM, CNRM-CM5, GFL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-CC, HadGEM2-CC, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-ESM1 and NorESM1-ME. For each ESM, seasonal surface averages of SST and chlorophyll-a were used to calculate growth potential for the historical scenario (1960-1989), which was then bilinearly interpolated on to the same 1°x1° grid. Satellite observation-based datasets for SST and chlorophyll-a were used to calculate observation-based growth potential for the recent past (1997-2010). These comprised seasonal surface averages of SST (from the OISST v2 daily dataset, 1/4⁰ horizontal resolution) and chlorophyll-a (the mean of the SeaWiFS and Johnson et al. (2013) corrected estimate of SeaWiFS daily datasets, 1/12⁰ horizontal resolution). Observation-based growth potential was then bilinearly interpolated onto the same grid as the ESMs.

ESM skill for each season was subsequently assessed against observation-based growth potential using a Taylor Diagram. The ESMs were selected and weighted according to their performance to produce a weighted subset (see "ESM_weighting_method.pdf" file). Of the netcdfs provided, "hist_mean_ensemble.nc" represents the unweighted mean of seasonal growth potential, calculated from the initial ensemble of eleven ESMs for the historical scenario. The "hist_mean_subset.nc" file represents the analogous output of the weighted subset.

Future projections of seasonal growth potential for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 were obtained using the weighted subset for the period of 2070-2099. These projected seasonal surface averages are provided in the "rcp45_mean_subset.nc" and "rcp85_mean_subset.nc" files. RCPs represent standard climate change scenarios developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, with 4.5 reflecting some mitigation of carbon emissions, and 8.5 being the "business as usual" scenario.

Analogous netcdfs for the weighted subset outputs of chlorophyll-a (chl) and SST (tos) for the historical and RCP scenarios are also provided in the "chl_tos_netcdfs.zip" file so that the driving environmental variables underlying growth potential can be examined.

Lineage

Progress Code: completed

Statement: This dataset represents modeled outputs and therefore problems with data collection do not apply directly. However, the OISST v2, SeaWiFS and Johnson et al. (2013) datasets, which were used for assessing model skill, are based off measurements (of SST or ocean colour, respectively) and analyses that have their own errors associated (see the respective datasets for more information).

Notes

Purpose
Antarctic krill are an ecologically and commercially important species in the Southern Ocean, and are also likely vulnerable to climate change. Initial habitat quality projections indicate that krill are vulnerable to warming sea surface temperatures (SST). However, krill are also highly sensitive to changes in food availability (mainly phytoplankton, approximated by satellite chlorophyll-a observations), which has yet to be included in habitat quality projections.